Stochastic Analysis of England Grain Prices 1750-1850

Abstract

We study the prices of grain in England 1750-1850, with special attention to the Tamboro volcano eruption time period 1815-1820. Two different types of time series are constructed and compared with the historical data. We find that the 1750-1789 time series, before the 1790- 1814 Napoleon war, is much like the time series 1821-1850. However, the time series during the 1815-1820 Tamboro volcano eruption period is clearly very different from these two time series. Prices appear significantly outside the confidence 3 sigma level, where sigma is measured for the 1750-1789 period. The prices during the volcano eruption period 1815-1820 are significantly larger than the prices during the periods 1750-1789 and 1821-1850. Our general conclusion is that the historical reports about increasing food prices due to the volcano eruptions is supported by our statistical analysis of the historical data of grain prices. The time series during the Napoleon war show very high prices and extreme fluctuations and are not analyzed in detail.